An Idiot's Guide To Tipping A Grand National Winner

 Mon Mome - You beauty

The Grand National has always been good to me, at 16 Amberleigh House manaaged to give me a win just before I went on holiday. The year after I was on a stag do, watching Morecambe versus Woking and on the advice of others I went for Hedgehunter (winnings were quickly spent in a Lancaster bar called Toast).

Since then I've had a rather more systematic approach to the greatest race of them all - bet on relative outsiders who more than one tipster fancies. It worked, for a few years spectaculary. Silver Birch did it's job, as did Comply Or Die and bizarrely I stuck a fiver on Mon Mome at 100-1 appropos "fuck it, I've got a spare fiver and I've heard it might do alright". Cue champagne, an impromptu open top bus tour round Liverpool and a happy NatWest student loan manager. A more arrogant individual would've assumed he was that Mr Spearfish chap from Jonathan Creek.

Yes Mon Mome you beauty!

Gladly my record in other races scuppered any idea that I was some sort of tipster, the closest I got to another big win being when I drunkenly put £20 on Sheffield Wednesday to win the derby 3-0 at Hillsborough. Three words: Leon fucking Clarke. An open goal miss cost me that little moment of glory and £600.

Since then understandably my record has regressed to the mean, with only Ballabriggs and an e/w bet on Sunnyhillboy offering the solace of a big win (in the same race).

However, I feel that the general rules for the unwary punter on The National for me is simple - don't just stick a pin in it, or bet on Shakalakaboomboom (a name so good his price is appalling), but spend half an hour reading through the various tipsters available and gradually get an uniformed opinion on who you fancy due to who convinces you and how many times outsiders' names come up - if you win you're a sage, if you don't journalism is once more in crisis. Secondly, split your bet - get three or four horses on, some each-way. Chances are one or two of your picks will be a faller or miles off the pace, but picking a few horses at least gives you a decent chance that you'll have one in the mix and give you something to cheer for. Lastly don't go on a famous jockey - inevitably a big name will have shortened the price. This policy cost me in 2010, when AP McCoy finally won the race, but it did me ok in the years before when his short-priced horse inevitably came-a-cropper.

Two Headed Sex Beast.

I'm fully expecting another year of hurt, so these will probably end up under a sheet being pored over by Alan Partridge, but my own bets are:

The Rainbow Hunter (e/w) 33-1
Mountainous (e/w) 40-1
Pineau De Re (w) 20-1
Big Shu (w) 25-1

Happy Grand National!